World 2.0 — “There are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen”
World 1.0World 2.0110 successive months of job growth10 million jobless claims in 2 weeks10 year bull market across sectorsWinners and losers with extreme outcome inequalityFull employment30% unemploymentBase rate thinkingFirst principles thinkingPhysicalDigitalOffice by defaultRemote by defaultOffice for workOffice for connection, community, ecosystem, makerspacesSuit, tie, wristwatch, business cardGood lighting, microphone, webcam, home office backgroundCommute + traffic jamsHome + familyLast mileOnly mileRestaurantsGroceries + delivery$4 toastSourdough starterWalkscoreSpeedtestCitiesInternet$100k for collegeNot paying $100k for a webinarCityCountrysideYIMBYNIMBYInternal issuesExogenous shockLots of little problemsOne big problemStupid bullshitActual issuesToo much technologyToo little technologyComplacencyActionYearsDaysPolicyCapacityIdeologyCompetenceAssume some government competenceAssume zero government competenceInstitutionsGhost shipsWHOWho?Trusted institutionsTrusted peopleGlobalizationDecouplingJust-in-timeStockpileTail risk is kookyTail risk is mainstreamNATOAsiaBoomers most powerfulBoomers most vulnerableProductivity growth collapseEconomic collapseSocial services DemocratUBI CommunistPropagandaPropagandaDeficit hawksMMTCorporate debtGovernment debtTechlashTech a pillar of civilization and lifeline to billionsBreak up AmazonDon’t break up Amazon!!!Avoiding social issuesAvoiding layoffsSportsEsportsPhone is a cigarettePhone is oxygenResource depletion$20 oil, $0.75 watt solar, <$100/kwh batteriesStasisChangeLow volatilityHigh volatilityDesignLogisticsExtrovertIntrovertOpenClosed20th century21st century
