A twofer on software estimation that also tallies with my intuition. People are really great at estimating the median which is impossible to communicate to people without deep intuition for software engineering and statistics.
It makes total sense as a guideline to multiply your initial guess x1.6 for the mean, x5 for the 95th percentile and x10 for the 99th percentile. This is also why deadlines are irrelevant and counterproductive in software engineering. There are much better ways to achieve the same goals.
https://thesearesystems.substack.com/p/task-estimation-conquering-hofstadters
